Avai 1–1 Novorizontino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

Hygor 26'

Jean Irmer 14'

4/6/2025

Serie B · Round 1Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Avai42%

×Draw28%

Novorizontino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Avai

1.25

Novorizontino

1.01

Avai creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.34

creates per match

1.10

0.91

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Novorizontino

1.10

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Novorizontino

1.15

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Novorizontino-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Avai or draw

70%

Avai or Novorizontino

72%

Draw or Novorizontino

58%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

19%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

71%

Avai 2+ goals

36%

Avai 3+ goals

13%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

64%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

27%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

58%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.15 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Novorizontino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Novorizontino attack 1.10 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avai scores more

42%

level

28%

Novorizontino scores more

30%

Avai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jean Irmer

Novorizontino · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

14'

19'

26'

32'

36'

Rafael Donato← Cesar Martins

46'

Gustavo Barreto← Judson

52'

João Vitor

61'

Alef Manga← Cleber

63'

Pablo Dyego← Waguininho

63'

77'

77'

79'

80'

81'

84'

90+1'

90+2'

Alef MangaGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiNovorizontino

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots15

4Corners6

9Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target4

3Off Target4

5Blocked7

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

404Total Passes405

324Accurate Passes316

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls20

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1