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Austria Wien W vs Altach / Vorderland W — Frauenliga 2019

Austria Wien W
Austria Wien W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Altach / Vorderland W
Altach / Vorderland W
5/1/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 15Sportplatz Union Landhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Austria Wien W42%
×Draw22%
Altach / Vorderland W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Wien W
1.85
Altach / Vorderland W
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

Austria Wien W
2.43
Altach / Vorderland W
2.52

allows per match

Austria Wien W
0.90
Altach / Vorderland W
1.26

finishing

Austria Wien W+0.00on par
Altach / Vorderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Wien W ↓

Altach / Vorderland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Austria Wien W or draw
64%
Austria Wien W or Altach / Vorderland W
78%
Draw or Altach / Vorderland W
58%

Winning margin

Austria Wien W wins by 2+
22%
Altach / Vorderland W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Austria Wien W 1+ goals
84%
Austria Wien W 2+ goals
55%
Austria Wien W 3+ goals
28%
Altach / Vorderland W 1+ goals
82%
Altach / Vorderland W 2+ goals
51%
Altach / Vorderland W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Austria Wien W (draw refunded)
54%
Altach / Vorderland W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Wien W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Altach / Vorderland W away — creates 2.52, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Wien W attack 2.43 + Altach / Vorderland W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.85

Altach / Vorderland W attack 2.52 + Austria Wien W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austria Wien W scores more
42%
level
22%
Altach / Vorderland W scores more
36%

Austria Wien W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria Wien W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Wien W vs Altach / Vorderland W

Austria Wien W and Altach / Vorderland W drew 1-1 in Frauenliga on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Landhaus in Wien.