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Altach / Vorderland W vs Austria Wien W — Frauenliga 2019

Altach / Vorderland W
Altach / Vorderland W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Austria Wien W
Austria Wien W
11/12/2023FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 9CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Altach / Vorderland W42%
×Draw23%
Austria Wien W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altach / Vorderland W
1.80
Austria Wien W
1.62

Altach / Vorderland W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

creates per match

Altach / Vorderland W
2.74
Austria Wien W
2.16

allows per match

Altach / Vorderland W
1.07
Austria Wien W
0.86

finishing

Altach / Vorderland W+0.00on par
Austria Wien W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altach / Vorderland W ↓

Austria Wien W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Altach / Vorderland W or draw
65%
Altach / Vorderland W or Austria Wien W
77%
Draw or Austria Wien W
58%

Winning margin

Altach / Vorderland W wins by 2+
22%
Austria Wien W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Altach / Vorderland W 1+ goals
83%
Altach / Vorderland W 2+ goals
54%
Altach / Vorderland W 3+ goals
27%
Austria Wien W 1+ goals
80%
Austria Wien W 2+ goals
48%
Austria Wien W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Altach / Vorderland W (draw refunded)
55%
Austria Wien W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altach / Vorderland W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Austria Wien W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altach / Vorderland W attack 2.74 + Austria Wien W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Austria Wien W attack 2.16 + Altach / Vorderland W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Altach / Vorderland W scores more
42%
level
23%
Austria Wien W scores more
35%

Altach / Vorderland W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Altach / Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altach / Vorderland W vs Austria Wien W

Altach / Vorderland W and Austria Wien W drew 1-1 in Frauenliga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.