Austria 2–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

Austria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland

Adrian Grbić 87'

Louis Schaub 81'

Josh Magennis 74'

11/15/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 5Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Austria53%

×Draw25%

Northern Ireland22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.91

Austria

1.56

Northern Ireland

0.91

Austria creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

0.64

1.17

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Austria

1.67

Northern Ireland

0.64

allows per match

Austria

1.17

Northern Ireland

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Austria or draw

78%

Austria or Northern Ireland

75%

Draw or Northern Ireland

47%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

27%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

79%

Austria 2+ goals

46%

Austria 3+ goals

21%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

60%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

23%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

70%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.67 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Austria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Austria scores more

53%

level

25%

Northern Ireland scores more

22%

Austria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Paddy McNair

Northern Ireland · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

Aleksandar Dragović

25'

Liam Boyce

36'

Jamal Lewis← Shane Ferguson

46'

Reinhold Ranftl← Aleksandar Dragović

62'

Josh Magennis← Conor Washington

63'

Marko Arnautović← Michael Gregoritsch

63'

Gavin Whyte← Liam Boyce

74'

Josh Magennis↳ Paddy McNair

78'

Adrian Grbić← Andreas Ulmer

78'

Louis Schaub← Julian Baumgartlinger

80'

Michael McGovern

81'

Louis Schaub↳ Adrian Grbić

83'

Steven Davis← Alistair McCann

83'

Craig Cathcart← Daniel Ballard

87'

Adrian Grbić↳ Marko Arnautović

90+4'

Marcel Sabitzer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustriaNorthern

Overview

71%Possession29%

10Total Shots5

11Corners1

15Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots5

3On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

4Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

674Total Passes271

577Accurate Passes180

86%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1