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Austria vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Austria
Austria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Marko Arnautović 71'
10/12/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 3Ernst Happel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Austria53%
×Draw25%
Northern Ireland22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.56
Northern Ireland
0.91

Austria creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Austria
1.67
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Austria
1.17
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Austria or draw
78%
Austria or Northern Ireland
75%
Draw or Northern Ireland
47%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
27%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
79%
Austria 2+ goals
46%
Austria 3+ goals
21%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
60%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
23%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
70%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.67 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Austria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Austria scores more
53%
level
25%
Northern Ireland scores more
22%

Austria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Bailey Peacock-Farrell
56'
Corry Evans← Shane Ferguson
71'
Marko Arnautović↳ Peter Zulj
75'
Alessandro Schöpf← Marcel Sabitzer
77'
Kyle Vassell← George Saville
79'
Will Grigg← Josh Magennis
83'
Florian Kainz← Guido Burgstaller
90'
Aleksandar Dragović← Valentino Lazaro

Possession

63%Austria

Shots

7Austria

Statistics

AustriaNorthern
Overview
63%Possession37%
7Total Shots6
7Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots6
3On Target2
4Off Target4
Passing
63%Possession37%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Austria vs Northern Ireland

Austria beat Northern Ireland 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 12, 2018.

Goals: Marko Arnautović (71').

Austria controlled possession (63%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna.