Austria U19 1–0 Kosovo U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kosovo U19

M. Lema 56'

10/3/2017

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Waldstadion Mittersill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Austria U1977%

×Draw15%

Kosovo U197%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchKosovo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.61

Austria U19

2.44

Kosovo U19

0.61

Austria U19 creates 300% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

3.67

creates per match

0.40

0.83

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Austria U19

3.67

Kosovo U19

0.40

allows per match

Austria U19

0.83

Kosovo U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

93%

Austria U19 or Kosovo U19

85%

Draw or Kosovo U19

23%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

55%

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

91%

Austria U19 2+ goals

70%

Austria U19 3+ goals

43%

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

46%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

13%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 3.67 + Kosovo U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Kosovo U19 attack 0.40 + Austria U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Austria U19 scores more

77%

level

15%

Kosovo U19 scores more

7%

Austria U19 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

M. Lema← P. Sturm

56'

M. Lema

60'

K. Arase← P. Sittsam

65'

G. Limani← D. Dakaj

72'

E. Kqiku← Rilind Nimani

75'

P. Obermüller← E. Schnürer

80'

L. Balaj← A. Behrami

Austria

Kosovo

12

2

3

4

19

13

▼

Behrami

8

▼

Dakaj

15

▼

9

11

7

1

3

5

12

2

▼

Schnürer

15

Bumberger

6

Müller

17

▼

Sturm

7

▼

Sittsam

10

Baumgartn

19

Meister

Manager: P. Schöttel

39'▲M. Lema←▼P. Sturm

60'▲K. Arase←▼P. Sittsam

75'▲P. Obermüller←▼E. Schnürer

Austria U19 substitutes

20Lema9Arase18Obermüller16Wagnes14Zottele8Hausjell21Karalic11Fitz13Petlach

Manager: R. Krasniqi

Kosovo U19 substitutes

10Limani18Kqiku14Balaj6Ademi1Berisha5Salihu20Gashi17Mehmeti16Haziri