Kosovo U19 1–0 Austria U19: Result & Stats

Kosovo U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Austria U19

3/20/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Stadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kosovo U1940%

×Draw26%

Austria U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kosovo U19Expected goals in this matchAustria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.26

Kosovo U19

1.39

Austria U19

1.26

Kosovo U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.40

1.13

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kosovo U19

1.88

Austria U19

1.40

allows per match

Kosovo U19

1.13

Austria U19

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Austria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo U19 ↓

Austria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kosovo U19 or draw

66%

Kosovo U19 or Austria U19

74%

Draw or Austria U19

60%

Winning margin

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

19%

Austria U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

75%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

40%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

16%

Austria U19 1+ goals

72%

Austria U19 2+ goals

36%

Austria U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Austria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo U19 attack 1.88 + Austria U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Austria U19 attack 1.40 + Kosovo U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kosovo U19 scores more

40%

level

26%

Austria U19 scores more

34%

Kosovo U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff