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Austria Lustenau vs Ried — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
Preview
15:00
Ried
Ried
8/2/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 1Planet Pure Stadion
40%
Austria Lustenau
model favours
40%25%35%

Ried score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau40%
×Draw25%
Ried35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.50
Ried
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 65 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
Ried
0.85

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
Ried
1.71

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
65%
Austria Lustenau or Ried
75%
Draw or Ried
60%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
19%
Ried wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
78%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
44%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
19%
Ried 1+ goals
75%
Ried 2+ goals
41%
Ried 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
53%
Ried (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Ried away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Ried defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ried attack 0.85 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
40%
level
25%
Ried scores more
35%

Austria Lustenau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Austria Lustenau’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Austria Lustenau’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lustenau
LDWLD
Ried
LWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Austria Lustenau host Ried

August 2, 2026: Austria Lustenau take on Ried in Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Austria Lustenau host Ried at Planet Pure Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.