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Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
Preview
16:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
1/23/2027BundesligaBundesliga · Round 17Planet Pure Stadion
57%
Red Bull Salzburg
model favours
21%21%57%

Red Bull Salzburg have won 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau21%
×Draw21%
Red Bull Salzburg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg
2.04

Red Bull Salzburg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 128 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
43%
Austria Lustenau or Red Bull Salzburg
79%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
79%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
8%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
69%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
32%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
11%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
87%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
60%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
27%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
21%
level
21%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
57%

Red Bull Salzburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Austria Lustenau’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Austria Lustenau’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.3 goals
  • Red Bull Salzburg fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.9 expected)
  • 20% of Red Bull Salzburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lustenau
LDWLD
Salzburg
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Austria Lustenau host Red Bull Salzburg

January 23, 2027: Austria Lustenau take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Austria Lustenau host Red Bull Salzburg at Planet Pure Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.