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Austria Klagenfurt vs FC BW Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
2/25/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 2028 Black Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt42%
×Draw26%
FC BW Linz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.46
FC BW Linz
1.27

Austria Klagenfurt creates 15% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.26
FC BW Linz
0.81

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
FC BW Linz
1.67

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
67%
Austria Klagenfurt or FC BW Linz
74%
Draw or FC BW Linz
58%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
20%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
77%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
43%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
18%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
72%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
36%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
56%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
42%
level
26%
FC BW Linz scores more
33%

Austria Klagenfurt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Klagenfurt 2–0 FC BW Linz

Austria Klagenfurt beat FC BW Linz 2-0 in Bundesliga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at 28 Black Arena in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.