Austria Klagenfurt 1–1 Bravo: Result & Stats

Austria Klagenfurt

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bravo

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz SV Moosburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt52%

×Draw21%

Bravo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchBravo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.47

Austria Klagenfurt

2.12

Bravo

1.47

Austria Klagenfurt creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.08

1.85

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt

2.08

Bravo

1.08

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.85

Bravo

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Bravo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Bravo →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw

73%

Austria Klagenfurt or Bravo

79%

Draw or Bravo

48%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

31%

Bravo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

88%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

62%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

35%

Bravo 1+ goals

77%

Bravo 2+ goals

43%

Bravo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

66%

Bravo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Bravo away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 2.08 + Bravo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.12

Bravo attack 1.08 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

52%

level

21%

Bravo scores more

27%

Austria Klagenfurt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff