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Auerbach vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Auerbach
Auerbach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
5/3/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 26Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Auerbach61%
×Draw20%
Arnstadt19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auerbach
2.15
Arnstadt
1.10

Auerbach creates 95% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 31 away

creates per match

Auerbach
1.85
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

Auerbach
1.27
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw
81%
Auerbach or Arnstadt
80%
Draw or Arnstadt
39%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+
38%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals
88%
Auerbach 2+ goals
63%
Auerbach 3+ goals
36%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
67%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
30%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)
77%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.15

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Auerbach scores more
61%
level
20%
Arnstadt scores more
19%

Auerbach at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Auerbach 3–1 Arnstadt

Auerbach beat Arnstadt 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Arena zur Vogtlandweide in Auerbach.