Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arnstadt vs Auerbach — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Auerbach
Auerbach
10/28/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 11Kunstrasenplatz 1 Am Obertunk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt24%
×Draw22%
Auerbach54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
1.29
Auerbach
2.02

Auerbach creates 57% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
Auerbach
1.79

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
Auerbach
1.27

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Auerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
46%
Arnstadt or Auerbach
78%
Draw or Auerbach
76%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
10%
Auerbach wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
72%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
37%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
14%
Auerbach 1+ goals
87%
Auerbach 2+ goals
60%
Auerbach 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
31%
Auerbach (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arnstadt scores more
24%
level
22%
Auerbach scores more
54%

Auerbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Arnstadt 0–1 Auerbach

Auerbach beat Arnstadt 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Am Obertunk in Arnstadt.