Auerbach 1–1 An der Fahner Höhe: Result & Stats

Auerbach

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

An der Fahner Höhe

10/29/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 11Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Auerbach52%

×Draw23%

An der Fahner Höhe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuerbachExpected goals in this matchAn der Fahner Höhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.15

Auerbach

1.77

An der Fahner Höhe

1.15

Auerbach creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 37 away

1.85

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Auerbach

1.85

An der Fahner Höhe

1.03

allows per match

Auerbach

1.27

An der Fahner Höhe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw

75%

Auerbach or An der Fahner Höhe

77%

Draw or An der Fahner Höhe

48%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+

29%

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals

83%

Auerbach 2+ goals

53%

Auerbach 3+ goals

26%

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

68%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

32%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)

68%

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Auerbach scores more

52%

level

23%

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

25%

Auerbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff