An der Fahner Höhe 3–3 Auerbach: Result & Stats

An der Fahner Höhe

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Auerbach

P. Kirchner 60'

A. Machts 15'

M. Baumgarten 7'

M. Zimmermann 84'

O. Brejcha 26'

C. Graf 8'

4/23/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Stadion Dachwig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe29%

×Draw23%

Auerbach48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

An der Fahner HöheExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.77

An der Fahner Höhe

1.34

Auerbach

1.77

Auerbach creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

1.41

creates per match

1.79

1.76

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.41

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.76

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw

52%

An der Fahner Höhe or Auerbach

77%

Draw or Auerbach

71%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

13%

Auerbach wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

74%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

39%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

15%

Auerbach 1+ goals

83%

Auerbach 2+ goals

53%

Auerbach 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

38%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Auerbach attack 1.79 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

29%

level

23%

Auerbach scores more

48%

Auerbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Baumgarten

8'

C. Graf

15'

A. Machts

26'

O. Brejcha

60'

P. Kirchner

84'

M. Zimmermann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff