Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aucas vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Aucas
Aucas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
3/10/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Aucas52%
×Draw25%
Tecnico Universitario23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.57
Tecnico Universitario
0.95

Aucas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 129 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.75
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

Aucas
1.04
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
77%
Aucas or Tecnico Universitario
75%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
48%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
27%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
79%
Aucas 2+ goals
46%
Aucas 3+ goals
21%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
61%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
25%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
69%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aucas scores more
52%
level
25%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
23%

Aucas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Aucas 3–1 Tecnico Universitario

Aucas beat Tecnico Universitario 3-1 in Liga Pro on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.