Atyrau 0–0 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

Atyrau

FT

0 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

10/22/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 11Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atyrau54%

×Draw25%

Akademiya Ontustik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtyrauExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.88

Atyrau

1.57

Akademiya Ontustik

0.88

Atyrau creates 78% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 76 away

1.17

creates per match

1.26

0.50

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Atyrau

1.17

Akademiya Ontustik

1.26

allows per match

Atyrau

0.50

Akademiya Ontustik

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atyrau+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrau ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atyrau or draw

79%

Atyrau or Akademiya Ontustik

75%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

46%

Winning margin

Atyrau wins by 2+

28%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atyrau 1+ goals

79%

Atyrau 2+ goals

46%

Atyrau 3+ goals

21%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

59%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

22%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atyrau (draw refunded)

72%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrau at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrau attack 1.17 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.26 + Atyrau defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atyrau scores more

54%

level

25%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

21%

Atyrau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

A. DashyanMissed penalty

73'

S. Bortay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff