Akademiya Ontustik 1–4 Atyrau: Result & Stats

Akademiya Ontustik

FT

1 – 4

Atyrau

Z. Babanazarov 9'

A. Rodionov 84'

P. Grzelczak 55'

R. Ospanov 45+1'

Z. Kairkenov 13'

9/25/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 4UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik28%

×Draw21%

Atyrau51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya OntustikExpected goals in this matchAtyrau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.12

Akademiya Ontustik

1.54

Atyrau

2.12

Atyrau creates 38% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

2.33

1.91

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.75

Atyrau

2.33

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.91

Atyrau

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Atyrau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw

49%

Akademiya Ontustik or Atyrau

79%

Draw or Atyrau

72%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

13%

Atyrau wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

79%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

45%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

20%

Atyrau 1+ goals

88%

Atyrau 2+ goals

62%

Atyrau 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

36%

Atyrau (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.91 · 76 matches

Atyrau away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.75 + Atyrau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atyrau attack 2.33 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

28%

level

21%

Atyrau scores more

51%

Atyrau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Z. Babanazarov

13'

Z. Kairkenov

45+1'

R. Ospanov

55'

P. Grzelczak

84'

A. Rodionov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff