Atyrá 1–1 Sportivo Iteno: Result & Stats

Atyrá

FT

1 – 1

Sportivo Iteno

7/21/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 19Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Atyrá47%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Iteno27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtyráExpected goals in this matchSportivo Iteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Atyrá

1.52

Sportivo Iteno

1.08

Atyrá creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 63 away

1.23

creates per match

0.98

1.19

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Atyrá

1.23

Sportivo Iteno

0.98

allows per match

Atyrá

1.19

Sportivo Iteno

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Sportivo Iteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw

73%

Atyrá or Sportivo Iteno

74%

Draw or Sportivo Iteno

53%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+

24%

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals

78%

Atyrá 2+ goals

45%

Atyrá 3+ goals

20%

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

66%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)

64%

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atyrá scores more

47%

level

26%

Sportivo Iteno scores more

27%

Atyrá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff