Atyrá vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 62+ matches
Atyrá47%
Sportivo Iteno27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atyrá creates 41% more chances
Season form · 62 home / 63 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atyrá ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches
Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atyrá attack 1.23 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52
Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Atyrá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Club River Plate
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Fernando De La Mora
Guairena FC
2 De Mayo
Rubio NU
Fulgencio Yegros
Resistencia
Deportivo Liberacion
Sportivo Trinidense
Ri 3 Corrales
Ovetense FC
General CaballeroSportivo Iteno
Deportivo Caaguazu
Martin LedesmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atyrá host Sportivo Iteno on Sunday, 13 October 2019 at 13:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2018/2019 season.
Division Intermedia: Atyrá 2–1 Sportivo Iteno
Atyrá beat Sportivo Iteno 2-1 in Division Intermedia on October 13, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis (Atyrä).