Atvidabergs FF 0–1 Angelholms FF: Result & Stats

Atvidabergs FF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Angelholms FF

4/9/2022

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 2Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Atvidabergs FF42%

×Draw25%

Angelholms FF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atvidabergs FFExpected goals in this matchAngelholms FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.27

Atvidabergs FF

1.48

Angelholms FF

1.27

Atvidabergs FF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 70 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.19

Angelholms FF

1.16

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.37

Angelholms FF

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Angelholms FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw

67%

Atvidabergs FF or Angelholms FF

75%

Draw or Angelholms FF

58%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

20%

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

77%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

43%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

19%

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

72%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

36%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

56%

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.19 + Angelholms FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Angelholms FF attack 1.16 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more

42%

level

25%

Angelholms FF scores more

33%

Atvidabergs FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff