Angelholms FF 1–0 Atvidabergs FF: Result & Stats

Angelholms FF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atvidabergs FF

6/11/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 12Änglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Angelholms FF44%

×Draw25%

Atvidabergs FF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angelholms FFExpected goals in this matchAtvidabergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Angelholms FF

1.58

Atvidabergs FF

1.30

Angelholms FF creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 66 away

1.34

creates per match

1.21

1.39

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Angelholms FF

1.34

Atvidabergs FF

1.21

allows per match

Angelholms FF

1.39

Atvidabergs FF

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Atvidabergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw

69%

Angelholms FF or Atvidabergs FF

75%

Draw or Atvidabergs FF

56%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

22%

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

79%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

47%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

21%

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

73%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

37%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

58%

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.34 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.21 + Angelholms FF defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Angelholms FF scores more

44%

level

25%

Atvidabergs FF scores more

31%

Angelholms FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Angelholms FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff