Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ATSV Erlangen vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
4/6/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATSV Erlangen45%
×Draw23%
ASV Neumarkt32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.77
ASV Neumarkt
1.48

ATSV Erlangen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
68%
ATSV Erlangen or ASV Neumarkt
77%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
55%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
24%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
83%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
53%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
26%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
77%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
43%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
58%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
45%
level
23%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
32%

ATSV Erlangen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ATSV Erlangen 2–3 ASV Neumarkt

ASV Neumarkt beat ATSV Erlangen 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.