Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASV Neumarkt vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
9/20/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt47%
×Draw24%
ATSV Erlangen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.73
ATSV Erlangen
1.32

ASV Neumarkt creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
71%
ASV Neumarkt or ATSV Erlangen
76%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
53%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
25%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
82%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
52%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
25%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
73%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
38%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
62%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
47%
level
24%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
29%

ASV Neumarkt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ASV Neumarkt 1–0 ATSV Erlangen

ASV Neumarkt beat ATSV Erlangen 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion am Deininger Weg in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.