Atromitos 3–2 Larisa: Result & Stats

Atromitos

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Larisa

M. Baku 41', 17'

Mansur 23'

L. Tupta 80'

K. Apostolakis 51'

4/18/2026

Super League 1 · Relegation Group - 3Peristeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atromitos47%

×Draw27%

Larisa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtromitosExpected goals in this matchLarisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.00

Atromitos

1.45

Larisa

1.00

Atromitos creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atromitos

1.38

Larisa

1.04

allows per match

Atromitos

0.96

Larisa

1.52

+0.75scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Atromitos+0.75scores more

Larisa+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

Larisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw

74%

Atromitos or Larisa

73%

Draw or Larisa

53%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+

23%

Larisa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals

77%

Atromitos 2+ goals

42%

Atromitos 3+ goals

18%

Larisa 1+ goals

63%

Larisa 2+ goals

26%

Larisa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)

65%

Larisa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 8 matches

Larisa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.38 + Larisa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Larisa attack 1.04 + Atromitos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atromitos scores more

47%

level

27%

Larisa scores more

26%

Atromitos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Baku

Atromitos · F

9.2

Match Events

17'

M. Baku↳ D. Jubitana

23'

Mansur↳ P. Michorl

32'

G. Naor← L. Rosic

33'

Konstantinos Apostolakis

38'

Peter Michorl

41'

M. Baku↳ P. Michorl

44'

Makana BakuGoal confirmed

46'

G. Mitoglou← Mansur

46'

J. Atanasov← V. Sourlis

47'

Steven ZuberCard upgrade

48'

Steven Zuber

51'

K. Apostolakis↳ D. Olafsson

55'

E. Ukaki← P. Michorl

62'

G. Pasas← D. Batubinsika

72'

Denzel Jubitana

72'

A. Karamanis← D. Jubitana

73'

G. Kakuta← Z. Chatzistravos

73'

80'

80'

80'

81'

Dimitrios Stavropoulos

89'

G. Tzovaras←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtromitosLarisa

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots18

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.65

2Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots18

4On Target7

5Off Target3

2Blocked8

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

413Total Passes405

346Accurate Passes338

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

8Fouls13

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3