Atromitos 0–1 Larisa: Result & Stats

Atromitos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Larisa

M. Stiefler 41'

4/10/2021

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 3Stadio Peristeriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atromitos47%

×Draw27%

Larisa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtromitosExpected goals in this matchLarisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.00

Atromitos

1.45

Larisa

1.00

Atromitos creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atromitos

1.38

Larisa

1.04

allows per match

Atromitos

0.96

Larisa

1.52

+0.75scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Atromitos+0.75scores more

Larisa+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

Larisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw

74%

Atromitos or Larisa

73%

Draw or Larisa

53%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+

23%

Larisa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals

77%

Atromitos 2+ goals

42%

Atromitos 3+ goals

18%

Larisa 1+ goals

63%

Larisa 2+ goals

26%

Larisa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)

65%

Larisa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 8 matches

Larisa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.38 + Larisa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Larisa attack 1.04 + Atromitos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atromitos scores more

47%

level

27%

Larisa scores more

26%

Atromitos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Spyridon Glinos

37'

A. Agayev← C. NSikulu

40'

Lucas Galvao

41'

M. Stiefler

51'

Nikola Jakimovski

58'

Juan Muñiz← S. Natsos

64'

T. Iliadis← N. Jakimovski

64'

A. Nikolias← S. Glinos

69'

Fiorin Durmishaj

71'

C. Theodorakis← C. Mandas

71'

B. Matić← L. Christodoulopoulos

73'

Maksim Maksymenko

75'

N. Žižić← Ä. Ben-Hatira

79'

Theofanis Mavromatis

79'

Gergely Nagy

88'

D. Graur← M. Acuña

88'

R. Milosavljević← F. Durmishaj

90'

Manolis Bertos

90'

Nikola Žižić

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AtromitosLarisa

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots5

4Corners4

16Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots5

3On Target3

5Off Target2

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls19

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3