Atlético Vinotinto 0–1 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Atlético Vinotinto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

9 de Octubre

D. Gonzalez 87'

5/29/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto55%

×Draw25%

9 de Octubre21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético VinotintoExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.89

Atlético Vinotinto

1.62

9 de Octubre

0.89

Atlético Vinotinto creates 82% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

2.31

creates per match

1.03

0.75

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto

2.31

9 de Octubre

1.03

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto

0.75

9 de Octubre

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw

79%

Atlético Vinotinto or 9 de Octubre

75%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

45%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

29%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

22%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

59%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

22%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

73%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + 9 de Octubre defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

9 de Octubre attack 1.03 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

55%

level

25%

9 de Octubre scores more

21%

Atlético Vinotinto at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'

D. Gonzalez

Atlético

9

1

12

6

4

70

7

10

14

24

27

41

12

33

26

21

20

5

3

10

11

9

18

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

16Vidal24Caicedo8Zambrano13Paz50Conforme2Piñeiros4Ponguillo7Bolaño31Barragán40Porozo

Manager: W. Aristizábal

9 de Octubre substitutes

23Rentería21Loor40Chávez17Ramírez18Martínez3Pontón16Castañeda20Morán30Gómez