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9 de Octubre vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
P. Vargas 29' (pen)
8/10/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 21Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

9 de Octubre49%
×Draw28%
Atlético Vinotinto22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.35
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

9 de Octubre creates 67% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.52
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

allows per match

9 de Octubre
0.81
Atlético Vinotinto
1.19

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
78%
9 de Octubre or Atlético Vinotinto
72%
Draw or Atlético Vinotinto
51%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
74%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
39%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.52 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + 9 de Octubre defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
49%
level
28%
Atlético Vinotinto scores more
22%

9 de Octubre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
P. VargasPenalty
61'
9
Atlético
W. Aristizábal
Manager: W. Aristizábal
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler

Match Recap: 9 de Octubre vs Atlético Vinotinto

Atlético Vinotinto beat 9 de Octubre 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 10, 2025.

Goals: P. Vargas (29' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer in Guayaquil.