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Atletico Venezuela vs Aragua FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
21:00
Aragua FC
Aragua FC
4/19/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 11Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela40%
×Draw27%
Aragua FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.31
Aragua FC
1.14

Atletico Venezuela creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Aragua FC
1.04

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Aragua FC
1.34

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Aragua FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
68%
Atletico Venezuela or Aragua FC
73%
Draw or Aragua FC
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
18%
Aragua FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
14%
Aragua FC 1+ goals
68%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
32%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
56%
Aragua FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Aragua FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aragua FC attack 1.04 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
40%
level
27%
Aragua FC scores more
32%

Atletico Venezuela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Venezuela face Aragua FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Atletico Venezuela hosting Aragua FC. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico Venezuela host Aragua FC at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.