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Aragua FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
9/27/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Aragua FC43%
×Draw29%
Atletico Venezuela28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.25
Atletico Venezuela
0.95

Aragua FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 60 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
0.96
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.87
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
72%
Aragua FC or Atletico Venezuela
71%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
57%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
71%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
36%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
61%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 0.96 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Aragua FC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aragua FC scores more
43%
level
29%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
28%

Aragua FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aragua FC face Atletico Venezuela (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Aragua FC hosting Atletico Venezuela. Match starts September 27, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aragua FC host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.