Atlético Tordesillas 0–0 Almazán: Result & Stats

Atlético Tordesillas

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almazán

10/19/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas50%

×Draw28%

Almazán23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TordesillasExpected goals in this matchAlmazán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.83

Atlético Tordesillas

1.38

Almazán

0.83

Atlético Tordesillas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 113 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

0.69

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas

1.41

Almazán

0.97

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas

0.69

Almazán

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Almazán →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw

77%

Atlético Tordesillas or Almazán

72%

Draw or Almazán

50%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

24%

Almazán wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

16%

Almazán 1+ goals

56%

Almazán 2+ goals

20%

Almazán 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

69%

Almazán (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Almazán attack 0.97 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

50%

level

28%

Almazán scores more

23%

Atlético Tordesillas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff