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Almazán vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Almazán43%
×Draw27%
Atlético Tordesillas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.34
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

Almazán creates 25% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 110 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
70%
Almazán or Atlético Tordesillas
73%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
57%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
74%
Almazán 2+ goals
39%
Almazán 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almazán scores more
43%
level
27%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
30%

Almazán at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Almazán 1–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Almazán beat Atlético Tordesillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.