Atlético Tomelloso 2–2 Tarancón: Result & Stats

Atlético Tomelloso

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tarancón

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso29%

×Draw27%

Tarancón44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TomellosoExpected goals in this matchTarancón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.38

Atlético Tomelloso

1.05

Tarancón

1.38

Tarancón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

0.94

creates per match

1.28

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso

0.94

Tarancón

1.28

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso

1.47

Tarancón

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Tarancón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw

56%

Atlético Tomelloso or Tarancón

73%

Draw or Tarancón

71%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+

11%

Tarancón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals

9%

Tarancón 1+ goals

75%

Tarancón 2+ goals

40%

Tarancón 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)

39%

Tarancón (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more

29%

level

27%

Tarancón scores more

44%

Tarancón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff