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Atlético Tomelloso vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tarancón
Tarancón
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso29%
×Draw27%
Tarancón44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tomelloso
1.05
Tarancón
1.38

Tarancón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso
0.94
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso
1.47
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw
56%
Atlético Tomelloso or Tarancón
73%
Draw or Tarancón
71%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
11%
Tarancón wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
9%
Tarancón 1+ goals
75%
Tarancón 2+ goals
40%
Tarancón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
39%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more
29%
level
27%
Tarancón scores more
44%

Tarancón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tomelloso 2 – 1 Tarancón

Atlético Tomelloso beat Tarancón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez in Tomelloso.