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Atlético Tembetary vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
5/13/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlético Tembetary57%
×Draw23%
Atlético Colegiales20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tembetary
1.81
Atlético Colegiales
0.96

Atlético Tembetary creates 89% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary
1.57
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary
0.95
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw
80%
Atlético Tembetary or Atlético Colegiales
77%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
33%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.57 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Atlético Tembetary defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more
57%
level
23%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
20%

Atlético Tembetary at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Tembetary 0–2 Atlético Colegiales

Atlético Colegiales beat Atlético Tembetary 2-0 in Division Intermedia on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.