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Atlético Colegiales vs Atlético Tembetary — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
8/17/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 21Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atlético Colegiales25%
×Draw26%
Atlético Tembetary49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.00
Atlético Tembetary
1.52

Atlético Tembetary creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 23 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
Atlético Tembetary
1.57

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
Atlético Tembetary
1.04

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Atlético Tembetary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
51%
Atlético Colegiales or Atlético Tembetary
74%
Draw or Atlético Tembetary
75%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
34%
Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Atlético Tembetary away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.57 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
25%
level
26%
Atlético Tembetary scores more
49%

Atlético Tembetary at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Colegiales 0–1 Atlético Tembetary

Atlético Tembetary beat Atlético Colegiales 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías in Lambaré.