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Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
Preview
23:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
8/23/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Libertad Financiera
40%
CF Pachuca
model favours
35%25%40%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico San Luis35%
×Draw25%
CF Pachuca40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico San Luis
1.42
CF Pachuca
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atletico San Luis
1.42
CF Pachuca
1.48

allows per match

Atletico San Luis
1.58
CF Pachuca
1.42

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw
60%
Atletico San Luis or CF Pachuca
75%
Draw or CF Pachuca
65%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
16%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
76%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
41%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
17%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
78%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
45%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
47%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.42 + CF Pachuca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

CF Pachuca attack 1.48 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more
35%
level
25%
CF Pachuca scores more
40%

CF Pachuca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico San Luis win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
  • Atletico San Luis sit 14, CF Pachuca 4 in the table
  • CF Pachuca outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Luis
WWWDL
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca — Match Preview

Atletico San Luis face CF Pachuca on August 23, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atletico San Luis host CF Pachuca at Estadio Libertad Financiera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.