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Atlético Pueblonuevo vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arroyo
Arroyo
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo44%
×Draw28%
Arroyo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.33
Arroyo
1.00

Atlético Pueblonuevo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 90 away

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.30
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.11
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw
72%
Atlético Pueblonuevo or Arroyo
72%
Draw or Arroyo
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
21%
Arroyo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
15%
Arroyo 1+ goals
63%
Arroyo 2+ goals
26%
Arroyo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
61%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
44%
level
28%
Arroyo scores more
28%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Atlético Pueblonuevo 3–1 Arroyo

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Arroyo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Amaya in Pueblonuevo del Guadiana.