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Arroyo vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 33Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Arroyo52%
×Draw25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.65
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.01

Arroyo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 66 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
77%
Arroyo or Atlético Pueblonuevo
75%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
48%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
81%
Arroyo 2+ goals
49%
Arroyo 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arroyo scores more
52%
level
25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
23%

Arroyo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Arroyo 0–2 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Arroyo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.