Atletico Paranaense 4–1 America de Cali

Atletico Paranaense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

Fernando Canesin 90+7'

Nikão 79' (pen)

Vitinho 71', 26'

A. Ramos 70' (pen)

7/21/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Arena da Baixada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atletico Paranaense62%

×Draw23%

America de Cali16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.77

Atletico Paranaense

1.79

America de Cali

0.77

Atletico Paranaense creates 132% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.23

creates per match

0.91

0.62

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

2.23

America de Cali

0.91

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.62

America de Cali

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

84%

Atletico Paranaense or America de Cali

77%

Draw or America de Cali

38%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

36%

America de Cali wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

53%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

26%

America de Cali 1+ goals

54%

America de Cali 2+ goals

18%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

80%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 2.23 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

62%

level

23%

America de Cali scores more

16%

Atletico Paranaense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Nikão

Atletico Paranaense · M

8.5

Match Events

26'

Vitinho↳ Nikão

30'

Kevin Andrade

45'

Héctor Quiñónes

46'

E. Batalla← J. Malagón

46'

J. Rodríguez← C. Cortés

55'

Kevin Andrade

55'

Kevin Andrade

60'

Thiago Heleno

66'

Rodrigo UreñaPenalty cancelled

70'

A. RamosPenalty

71'

Vitinho↳ Nikão

77'

Joel Graterol

79'

NikãoPenalty

82'

Jádson← D. Terans

82'

Renato Kayzer← Matheus Babi

88'

Jáderson← Vitinho

89'

Fernando Canesin← Christian

90+1'

Luan Patrick← Léo Cittadini

90+7'

Fernando Canesin↳ Jádson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmerica

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots3

4Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots3

9On Target1

7Off Target2

2Blocked0

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

452Total Passes279

388Accurate Passes223

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1