Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America de Cali vs Atletico Paranaense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaenseadvanced
Nikão 73' (pen)
7/14/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

America de Cali28%
×Draw30%
Atletico Paranaense42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
0.92
Atletico Paranaense
1.19

Atletico Paranaense creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.00
Atletico Paranaense
1.58

allows per match

America de Cali
0.80
Atletico Paranaense
0.83

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
58%
America de Cali or Atletico Paranaense
70%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
72%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
10%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
60%
America de Cali 2+ goals
23%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
40%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.58 + America de Cali defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

America de Cali scores more
28%
level
30%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
42%

Atletico Paranaense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
H. QuiñónesAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
Léo Cittadini
13'
Rodrigo Ureña
46'
Zé Ivaldo
46'
Marcinho← Khellven
50'
VitinhoGoal confirmed
57'
Marcinho
58'
J. Rodríguez← C. Cortés
65'
Matheus Babi← D. Terans
68'
E. Batalla← L. Paz
70'
BentoPenalty cancelled
73'
NikãoPenalty
84'
Carlos Eduardo← Vitinho
90+3'
Erick← Léo Cittadini

Possession

53%America

Shots

9America

Pass accuracy

52%America

Statistics

AmericaAtletico
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots12
3Corners7
16Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots12
1On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked5
6Inside Box4
3Outside Box8
Passing
53%Possession47%
394Total Passes353
316Accurate Passes266
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: America de Cali 0–1 Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense beat America de Cali 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 14, 2021.

Goals: Nikão (73' pen).

America de Cali controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.