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Atlético Pantoja vs Atlético de SF — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
FT
3 – 0
Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
6/23/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 12Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético Pantoja69%
×Draw18%
Atlético de SF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pantoja
2.21
Atlético de SF
0.80

Atlético Pantoja creates 176% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atlético Pantoja
1.64
Atlético de SF
0.67

allows per match

Atlético Pantoja
0.94
Atlético de SF
2.78

finishing

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par
Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pantoja ↓

Atlético de SF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Pantoja or draw
88%
Atlético Pantoja or Atlético de SF
82%
Draw or Atlético de SF
31%

Winning margin

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
45%
Atlético de SF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
65%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
38%
Atlético de SF 1+ goals
55%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
19%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
85%
Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pantoja at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 80 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.64 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.21

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Atlético Pantoja defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Atlético Pantoja scores more
69%
level
18%
Atlético de SF scores more
12%

Atlético Pantoja at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pantoja vs Atlético de SF

Atlético Pantoja beat Atlético de SF 3-0 in Liga Mayor on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez in Santo Domingo.