Atlético de SF 1–2 Atlético Pantoja: Result & Stats

Atlético de SF

FT

1 – 2

Atlético Pantoja

5/1/2021

Liga Mayor · Round 3Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético de SF25%

×Draw24%

Atlético Pantoja51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético de SFExpected goals in this matchAtlético Pantoja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.75

Atlético de SF

1.16

Atlético Pantoja

1.75

Atlético Pantoja creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 79 away

1.00

creates per match

1.72

1.78

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Atlético de SF

1.00

Atlético Pantoja

1.72

allows per match

Atlético de SF

1.78

Atlético Pantoja

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético de SF ↓

Atlético Pantoja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atlético de SF or draw

49%

Atlético de SF or Atlético Pantoja

76%

Draw or Atlético Pantoja

75%

Winning margin

Atlético de SF wins by 2+

10%

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Atlético de SF 1+ goals

69%

Atlético de SF 2+ goals

32%

Atlético de SF 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)

33%

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético de SF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Atlético Pantoja away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético de SF attack 1.00 + Atlético Pantoja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.72 + Atlético de SF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético de SF scores more

25%

level

24%

Atlético Pantoja scores more

51%

Atlético Pantoja at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff