Atlético Ottawa 2–1 York United: Result & Stats

Atlético Ottawa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

York United

6/11/2025

Canadian Championship · Quarter-finalsTD Place Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlético Ottawa73%

×Draw18%

York United8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético OttawaExpected goals in this matchYork United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.55

Atlético Ottawa

2.10

York United

0.55

Atlético Ottawa creates 282% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

0.43

0.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Atlético Ottawa

2.33

York United

0.43

allows per match

Atlético Ottawa

0.67

York United

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Ottawa+0.00on par

York United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ottawa ↓

York United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Ottawa or draw

92%

Atlético Ottawa or York United

82%

Draw or York United

27%

Winning margin

Atlético Ottawa wins by 2+

48%

York United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Atlético Ottawa 1+ goals

88%

Atlético Ottawa 2+ goals

62%

Atlético Ottawa 3+ goals

35%

York United 1+ goals

42%

York United 2+ goals

11%

York United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ottawa (draw refunded)

90%

York United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ottawa at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

York United away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ottawa attack 2.33 + York United defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

York United attack 0.43 + Atlético Ottawa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Atlético Ottawa scores more

73%

level

18%

York United scores more

8%

Atlético Ottawa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Atlético Ottawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff