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Atlético Onubense vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
3/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense38%
×Draw33%
Atlético Central29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Onubense
0.99
Atlético Central
0.83

Atlético Onubense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Atlético Onubense
1.06
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Atlético Onubense
0.89
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw
71%
Atlético Onubense or Atlético Central
67%
Draw or Atlético Central
62%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more
38%
level
33%
Atlético Central scores more
29%

Atlético Onubense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Onubense 0 – 1 Atlético Central

Atlético Central beat Atlético Onubense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez in Huelva.