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Atlético Central vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Centro Deportivo Vega de Triana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Central45%
×Draw27%
Atlético Onubense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.40
Atlético Onubense
1.05

Atlético Central creates 33% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Atlético Onubense
1.35

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Atlético Onubense
1.18

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Atlético Onubense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
72%
Atlético Central or Atlético Onubense
73%
Draw or Atlético Onubense
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Central scores more
45%
level
27%
Atlético Onubense scores more
28%

Atlético Central at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Central 4 – 0 Atlético Onubense

Atlético Central beat Atlético Onubense 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Vega de Triana in Sevilla.