Atletico Nacional 3–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Envigado

A. Andrade 90+2'

J. Duque 90+1'

M. Chacón 33'

4/3/2021

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%

×Draw25%

Envigado18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

Atletico Nacional

1.61

Envigado

0.78

Atletico Nacional creates 106% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 149 away

1.84

creates per match

0.74

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.84

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or Envigado

75%

Draw or Envigado

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Envigado wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

22%

Envigado 1+ goals

54%

Envigado 2+ goals

18%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

Envigado (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.83 · 188 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.84 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Envigado attack 0.74 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

57%

level

25%

Envigado scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Andrade

Atletico Nacional · M

9.2

Match Events

14'

33'

52'

53'

54'

57'

B. Perlaza← M. Chacón

59'

Emanuel Olivera

61'

M. Gómez← J. Durán

61'

J. Maza← Y. Meneses

68'

G. Perea← Y. Mosquera

68'

J. Duque← J. Barrera

68'

E. López← J. Suárez

76'

V. Hernández← J. Alvez

76'

76'

84'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoEnvigado

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots10

1Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target2

5Off Target4

3Blocked4

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

550Total Passes360

484Accurate Passes276

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0