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Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
Preview
01:30
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
8/27/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
60%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
60%24%17%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Nacional60%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Cali17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.71
Deportivo Cali
0.77

Atletico Nacional creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.35
Deportivo Cali
0.87

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.67
Deportivo Cali
1.07

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.08scores more
Deportivo Cali+0.30scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
83%
Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Cali
76%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
40%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
34%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
51%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
78%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.67 · 7 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.35 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Cali attack 0.87 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
60%
level
24%
Deportivo Cali scores more
17%

Atletico Nacional at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • Style contrast — Atletico Nacional play Possession-dominant, Deportivo Cali Defensively solid
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
56%Possession51%
83%Pass accuracy79%
15.5Shots12.2
1.64xGBiggest gap1.01
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Atletico Nacional
1
Draws
3
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
0–12–10–11–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
WLWWW
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Cali

August 27, 2026: Atletico Nacional take on Deportivo Cali in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Cali at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.