Atletico Nacional 2–2 Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportivo Cali

P. Ceppelini 74'

S. Gómez 45+2'

A. Palavecino 11'

J. Dinenno 2'

3/21/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Atletico Nacional

1.50

Deportivo Cali

0.91

Atletico Nacional creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

1.05

0.77

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Deportivo Cali

1.05

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Deportivo Cali

1.24

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

77%

Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Cali

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

69%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

51%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali scores more

23%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Palavecino

Deportivo Cali

8.3

Match Events

2'

J. Dinenno↳ A. Palavecino

11'

A. Palavecino↳ C. Rivera

16'

Carlos Cuesta

17'

Juan Dinenno

23'

Daniel Rosero Valencia

36'

P. Ceppelini← J. Ramírez

45'

Pablo Ceppelini

45'

V. Hernández← S. Lucumí

45+2'

S. Gómez

46'

K. Velasco← J. Mosquera

67'

D. Caicedo← D. Delgado

69'

69'

70'

74'

74'

P. Ceppelini↳ Y. Candelo

82'

Daniel Bocanegra

82'

F. Mercado← A. Palavecino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots19

10Corners6

7Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots19

10On Target5

4Off Target10

1Blocked4

5Inside Box10

10Outside Box9

Passing

62%Possession38%

542Total Passes322

448Accurate Passes250

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

7Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1