Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali

5/19/2018

Primera A · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.88

Atletico Nacional

1.48

Deportivo Cali

0.88

Atletico Nacional creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.77

creates per match

0.99

0.77

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Deportivo Cali

0.99

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Deportivo Cali

1.20

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Deportivo Cali+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

78%

Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Cali

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Cali attack 0.99 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

51%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali scores more

22%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff